Start each day, from the second you wake up, with Gratitude, Excitement, Joy, and Love. Do Not allow Anything to sway you from these feelings.
At Sell-A-House-Arizona you get these feelings from both #HomeBuying and #HomeSelling.
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Friday, July 26, 2013
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Phoenix Market is On Fire--True or False
Both True and False!! I know you are always getting these non answers from me but it it's just how it is. Some AREAS of the market Are On Fire, and Some are NOT!!!
The fact that the "Industry" would even put out a blanket statement like this has got to show you that the hype is always something you'd better look out for. Let me show you why.
Some of the comments going along with the on fire statement go like this,
Prices are Trending Upward or Prices are Rising
Properties are receiveing multiple offers
Buyers are engaging in bidding wars driving up the price
Inventory is shrinking or Inventory is down
Foreclosures are down
Short sales are down
Yes to a certain extent each one of these statements are true, and to a certain extent each one of these statements is false.
Short Sales-- these have gone up and down all along it really all depends on how many people want to face reality and at least TRY to save their credit to some extent
Foreclosures--What have the banks done every year for the past 4 years between November and Jan 15h or so? They put halt to foreclosures so they don't look like the big bad meanie putting people out in the streets during the holidays--And yes this is the only reason for doing so no matter what you've heard. Well guess what if they're not filing foreclosures for 2 1/2 months and it takes 3 months from the time of filing to do a foreclosure what do you think the is going to happen to the amount of foreclosures between Jan 15th and April 15th--DUH!! They are going to go Down!! But what is to happen in the coming months?
Inventory is shrinking--Be Very careful how you look at this one. Certain Inventory in Specific price frames are shrinking while at the same time certain inventory in other prices ranges are rising. Albeit the shrinking inventories are moving faster than the growing ones and therefore you have an "overall" decrease. Also figure in the fact that mid march through mid June is the Prime Buying Season (More homes are sold during this 3 month period than any other throughout the year) Plus you factor in the REO thing I just spoke of and where is inventory in the coming months?
Prices are Rising/Trending Upward(I hate that term trending upward)--This is another one you better be really careful with. Same as with inventory this statement is specific to certain rice range properties. And again the HOT price ranges are creating an overall increase throughout MOST of the remaining market. But there ARE still areas of the market where prices are still declining--some by as much as 14% per year.
Properties are receiving multiple offers--Absolutely!!IF they are priced under market value!!! If you price your house at full market value (or higher if you listen to your real estate agent about the trending upward (Yuck) prices) you will be Lucky if you even get an ONE offer. And where does this leave you? Playing the Agent Chases the Market Game where you react to what happened last month at the end of this month which is then not enough compensation and leaves doing the same thing the next month, and the next month, and so on until your listing agreement expires and you end up with nothing but decreased value and lost opportunity--meanwhile your agent still has a dozen other listings to sell so it's no skin off their hide.
Buyers are engaging in bidding wars driving up the asking price--Again this scenario is happening all the time, IF you're starting price begins Below Market Value. Otherwise same as above!
And Now Just within the past 30 days this is becoming national news. Just in time for it start changing back to what this market does EVERY year. Sure thers another solid month for you to take advantage of this, or wait........is Now REALLY The Best Time? Or would you be getting in just in time to see yourself go underwater in the coming months of leveling off off and decreasing values. Thanks A Lot Media for the late notice!!!
With foreclosures coming back from the holiday lay off, the selling season coming to an end, and the temperatures begining to rise into the upper 100's, the number of offers will be declining, as the inventory levels off and may potentially begin to slightly rise again. Less offers from less buyers will mean less sales which will also contribute to rising inventory. Rising inventory coupled with less sales will mean leveling off, followed by decreasing prices. So Buy NOW!! Make sure you jump in After the fact and set yourself up to lose in the long run.
Now on the other hand there IS Plenty of GOOD Opportunity still available today and into the coming months and throughout the year, BUT You'd better be talking the right people who are going to lead in the right direction. You'd Better be Buying within the quality price ranges that moving in a positive direction and not get caught in some of the still declining markets.
www.Sell-A-House-Arizona.com is the home of a real estate BUSINESS!! Not an agency trained to Market Property with no risk whatsoever.
As a Real Estate Business, Buying and Selling Property, We Have a Vested Interest in what we do. We stand to Lose Money If We Are Even Just Slightly Wrong with Our Calculations. What does your agent have at risk? One of His or Her MANY Listings from which they can make money. They know Something will sell next month, Does it HAVE to be your place? NO!!
When we are buying a property we have a very strick schedule within which precise actions must take place. It is THIS reason along the research we must do, the Market analysis, the Studies, the Charts, the Graphs, the RESULTS we must track are a completely different and unique set of nubers than what real estate agents need, want, or desire to track in order simply advertise someones property for them. Yes they are "Professionals" with a license (required by the state to "sell property for another person"--That's it! That is the purpose of the license, to meet some rule of the state designed so the state can make money too. Sort of like Insurance--legalized theft--being mandated by law) but who do You Think has thier finger more precisely on the pulse of the market.
Look I have nothing against realtors. They serve a purpose and in a perfect world what they do is designed to work perfectly for all parties. I mean if they Market and sell your house for the highest rice possible then you will ultimately put more money in your pocket, the bank will write a larger loan and do the same, and they themselves will cash a larger commission check. Perfect for a perfect world, perfect market, and perfect economy, but today everything is Far From Perfect. However the real estate (governmentally controlled that is) business is still trying to operate as though it is.
Our real estate business (with only IRS fingers in our pie--those dogs) operates in the "Real World" and therefore MUST (if we are to have Any Cahnce of success) be so on top of every last detail of what is going on in the market. Right down to how many more days it will take to sell
with a price difference of just One Thousand Dollars.
Phoenix Real Estate Market is NOT a Raging Forest Fire churning through 100's of thousands of acres per day. It's more like a campground at night with spot fires of varying sizes all over the place even though there is a raging bon fire in central complex.
Just be careful WHERE You set up camp before you start throwing your logs onto the fire.
The fact that the "Industry" would even put out a blanket statement like this has got to show you that the hype is always something you'd better look out for. Let me show you why.
Some of the comments going along with the on fire statement go like this,
Prices are Trending Upward or Prices are Rising
Properties are receiveing multiple offers
Buyers are engaging in bidding wars driving up the price
Inventory is shrinking or Inventory is down
Foreclosures are down
Short sales are down
Yes to a certain extent each one of these statements are true, and to a certain extent each one of these statements is false.
Short Sales-- these have gone up and down all along it really all depends on how many people want to face reality and at least TRY to save their credit to some extent
Foreclosures--What have the banks done every year for the past 4 years between November and Jan 15h or so? They put halt to foreclosures so they don't look like the big bad meanie putting people out in the streets during the holidays--And yes this is the only reason for doing so no matter what you've heard. Well guess what if they're not filing foreclosures for 2 1/2 months and it takes 3 months from the time of filing to do a foreclosure what do you think the is going to happen to the amount of foreclosures between Jan 15th and April 15th--DUH!! They are going to go Down!! But what is to happen in the coming months?
Inventory is shrinking--Be Very careful how you look at this one. Certain Inventory in Specific price frames are shrinking while at the same time certain inventory in other prices ranges are rising. Albeit the shrinking inventories are moving faster than the growing ones and therefore you have an "overall" decrease. Also figure in the fact that mid march through mid June is the Prime Buying Season (More homes are sold during this 3 month period than any other throughout the year) Plus you factor in the REO thing I just spoke of and where is inventory in the coming months?
Prices are Rising/Trending Upward(I hate that term trending upward)--This is another one you better be really careful with. Same as with inventory this statement is specific to certain rice range properties. And again the HOT price ranges are creating an overall increase throughout MOST of the remaining market. But there ARE still areas of the market where prices are still declining--some by as much as 14% per year.
Properties are receiving multiple offers--Absolutely!!IF they are priced under market value!!! If you price your house at full market value (or higher if you listen to your real estate agent about the trending upward (Yuck) prices) you will be Lucky if you even get an ONE offer. And where does this leave you? Playing the Agent Chases the Market Game where you react to what happened last month at the end of this month which is then not enough compensation and leaves doing the same thing the next month, and the next month, and so on until your listing agreement expires and you end up with nothing but decreased value and lost opportunity--meanwhile your agent still has a dozen other listings to sell so it's no skin off their hide.
Buyers are engaging in bidding wars driving up the asking price--Again this scenario is happening all the time, IF you're starting price begins Below Market Value. Otherwise same as above!
And Now Just within the past 30 days this is becoming national news. Just in time for it start changing back to what this market does EVERY year. Sure thers another solid month for you to take advantage of this, or wait........is Now REALLY The Best Time? Or would you be getting in just in time to see yourself go underwater in the coming months of leveling off off and decreasing values. Thanks A Lot Media for the late notice!!!
With foreclosures coming back from the holiday lay off, the selling season coming to an end, and the temperatures begining to rise into the upper 100's, the number of offers will be declining, as the inventory levels off and may potentially begin to slightly rise again. Less offers from less buyers will mean less sales which will also contribute to rising inventory. Rising inventory coupled with less sales will mean leveling off, followed by decreasing prices. So Buy NOW!! Make sure you jump in After the fact and set yourself up to lose in the long run.
Now on the other hand there IS Plenty of GOOD Opportunity still available today and into the coming months and throughout the year, BUT You'd better be talking the right people who are going to lead in the right direction. You'd Better be Buying within the quality price ranges that moving in a positive direction and not get caught in some of the still declining markets.
www.Sell-A-House-Arizona.com is the home of a real estate BUSINESS!! Not an agency trained to Market Property with no risk whatsoever.
As a Real Estate Business, Buying and Selling Property, We Have a Vested Interest in what we do. We stand to Lose Money If We Are Even Just Slightly Wrong with Our Calculations. What does your agent have at risk? One of His or Her MANY Listings from which they can make money. They know Something will sell next month, Does it HAVE to be your place? NO!!
When we are buying a property we have a very strick schedule within which precise actions must take place. It is THIS reason along the research we must do, the Market analysis, the Studies, the Charts, the Graphs, the RESULTS we must track are a completely different and unique set of nubers than what real estate agents need, want, or desire to track in order simply advertise someones property for them. Yes they are "Professionals" with a license (required by the state to "sell property for another person"--That's it! That is the purpose of the license, to meet some rule of the state designed so the state can make money too. Sort of like Insurance--legalized theft--being mandated by law) but who do You Think has thier finger more precisely on the pulse of the market.
Look I have nothing against realtors. They serve a purpose and in a perfect world what they do is designed to work perfectly for all parties. I mean if they Market and sell your house for the highest rice possible then you will ultimately put more money in your pocket, the bank will write a larger loan and do the same, and they themselves will cash a larger commission check. Perfect for a perfect world, perfect market, and perfect economy, but today everything is Far From Perfect. However the real estate (governmentally controlled that is) business is still trying to operate as though it is.
Our real estate business (with only IRS fingers in our pie--those dogs) operates in the "Real World" and therefore MUST (if we are to have Any Cahnce of success) be so on top of every last detail of what is going on in the market. Right down to how many more days it will take to sell
with a price difference of just One Thousand Dollars.
Phoenix Real Estate Market is NOT a Raging Forest Fire churning through 100's of thousands of acres per day. It's more like a campground at night with spot fires of varying sizes all over the place even though there is a raging bon fire in central complex.
Just be careful WHERE You set up camp before you start throwing your logs onto the fire.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
House Hunter-Deals Unlimited Update
You've got to go check out the inagural edition of my brand new newsletter!!!
This is an inspirational, educational, Deal Packed, literary masterpiece that will leave you wanting more each issue. I could go on for hours, but you should really just go see for yourself.
http://www.sell-a-house-arizona.com/newsletter
This is an inspirational, educational, Deal Packed, literary masterpiece that will leave you wanting more each issue. I could go on for hours, but you should really just go see for yourself.
http://www.sell-a-house-arizona.com/newsletter
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Mentor Me to Real Estate Riches
I just put out a video announcing my newest program to mentor budding wholesale real estate investors. Follow this link if you think you need--and you know you do--a mentor now.
http://bit.ly/x8vSG7
www.Sell-A-House-Arizona.com
http://bit.ly/x8vSG7
www.Sell-A-House-Arizona.com
Saturday, March 3, 2012
How to Sell a House Phoenix--House Hunter
Or maybe the title should read How NOT to Sell a House Phoenix.
I am a real estate Wholesaler. I am not a licensed Agent or Broker and quite frankly Never wish to be one. Now I have nothing against RE Agents or Brokers. They do a job, they provide a service, they do help a lot of people, and overall Most of them--and this goes for pretty much any group of people you want to talk about--are probably really great people, and some just aren't. That's just life and the world we live in. Like I said you're going find that with any group of people.
Thing is I buy and sell a Lot of real estate, but I try to stay away from agents as much as possible. Because most of them either just don't get it, or dont even want to try and get it. They live in their high an might realtors world and anyone who is not buying and selling real estate through their traditional methods is either some whacko or doing something illegal. Which far from it. Actually if they would open thier minds to the new opprtunities people like myself can bring to the table they could make a lot of money, and maybe learn a few things along the way. Most just don't even want to try though.
Like I said nothing personal. They have their own rules to follow, standards to live up to, and techniques and strategies which work for them, and that's perfectly fine. Live and let live is say. But when other realtors are pushing the idea of how poor the service some may be providing to their clients is, I've just gotta laugh. Out loud even.
I talk with many homeowners who need to sell a house and A Lot of them too think I'm some kinda whacko or trying to do something illegal. Unfortunately it's just the way they understand real estate to be because they have the traditional methods also ingrained into their minds. Again no biggie, There's plenty of opportunity out there and I don't need to spend my time trying to convince people into new beliefs--I hate when anyone trys to push that on me and try not to do it to others. I much prefer to simply spend my time with open minded people--they're usually happier, and more pleasant people anyway.
So I just read this blog post from the "Phoenix Real Estate Guy" http://bit.ly/5QhJFu (Check it out I think it's great--probably cuz it made me laugh) Now I'm not sure if he's a realtor or not--I stumbled across the blog post and it caught my--and I didn't really bother to investigate this person--You're welcome to. But whether he's a realtor or not what is saying is "watch out joe public, the traditional real estate sales method is not always everything it's cracked up to be." A point I try to make to people all the time for numerous reasons I should write a whole other post about,, but anyway.
It just reinforces my belief that people need to get educated about investor buyers and what we can offer to a seller. Number 1 of course is right there in what we are classified as Investor "BUYERS." That's right we want to BUY YOUR HOUSE. ........Not just List It so we can both sit back and Wait, and Hope, a buyer comes along--in time maybe depending your situation--who's willing to pay the quite likely over valued asking price your realtor talked you into listing it at, or at least hope they will make an offer that is not so low your agent is going to try and talk you out of accepting it--because you can get more, or the bank won't accept it so you shouldn't either--they have NO IDEA what the bank will or will not take. They're just trying to sell the house for more money so they can earn a bigger commission. There I go again off a tangent rave--which just might be my next post.
Okay back on track here. This is MY Message:
Attention:Joe Public Home Seller, go out and find a real estate investor (you can find them online ie. www-sell-a-house-arizona.com--that's me of course but you get it)
Do this FIRST--you can always do other things later
The beauty of finding the real estate investor first is you will gain ton's of knowledge--if nothing else--youcan use to go do those other things.
The other thing is you will not lose weeks, months, and more months of time waiting to see results. We investors move FAST. You'll know within a few short days--sometimes hours--if there is going be a deal that works for both parties--and our deals Always work for BOTH parties. It's all about Win/Win.
And if there isn't I'm sorry Mr Joe Public Homeowner but thank you for the opportunity and congradualtions for making the decision to contact a "Professional BUYER" first, so you can learn more and hopefully have greater success selling your house elswhere. It's been my pleasure to provide you with this information and I wish you all the best. Oh and by the way if nothing works out, please call me back and I'll be happy to take another look.
Now really how easy was that!!.....And the other happy ending is, "Yes I'll buy it at that price, just sign here." You now have a contract for sale and you can move on with your life.
And How Easy Was THAT!!!
The Fastest, Easiest way to Sell-A-House-Arizona.com is right here in front of you. Feel Free to take advantage of me.
I am a real estate Wholesaler. I am not a licensed Agent or Broker and quite frankly Never wish to be one. Now I have nothing against RE Agents or Brokers. They do a job, they provide a service, they do help a lot of people, and overall Most of them--and this goes for pretty much any group of people you want to talk about--are probably really great people, and some just aren't. That's just life and the world we live in. Like I said you're going find that with any group of people.
Thing is I buy and sell a Lot of real estate, but I try to stay away from agents as much as possible. Because most of them either just don't get it, or dont even want to try and get it. They live in their high an might realtors world and anyone who is not buying and selling real estate through their traditional methods is either some whacko or doing something illegal. Which far from it. Actually if they would open thier minds to the new opprtunities people like myself can bring to the table they could make a lot of money, and maybe learn a few things along the way. Most just don't even want to try though.
Like I said nothing personal. They have their own rules to follow, standards to live up to, and techniques and strategies which work for them, and that's perfectly fine. Live and let live is say. But when other realtors are pushing the idea of how poor the service some may be providing to their clients is, I've just gotta laugh. Out loud even.
I talk with many homeowners who need to sell a house and A Lot of them too think I'm some kinda whacko or trying to do something illegal. Unfortunately it's just the way they understand real estate to be because they have the traditional methods also ingrained into their minds. Again no biggie, There's plenty of opportunity out there and I don't need to spend my time trying to convince people into new beliefs--I hate when anyone trys to push that on me and try not to do it to others. I much prefer to simply spend my time with open minded people--they're usually happier, and more pleasant people anyway.
So I just read this blog post from the "Phoenix Real Estate Guy" http://bit.ly/5QhJFu (Check it out I think it's great--probably cuz it made me laugh) Now I'm not sure if he's a realtor or not--I stumbled across the blog post and it caught my--and I didn't really bother to investigate this person--You're welcome to. But whether he's a realtor or not what is saying is "watch out joe public, the traditional real estate sales method is not always everything it's cracked up to be." A point I try to make to people all the time for numerous reasons I should write a whole other post about,, but anyway.
It just reinforces my belief that people need to get educated about investor buyers and what we can offer to a seller. Number 1 of course is right there in what we are classified as Investor "BUYERS." That's right we want to BUY YOUR HOUSE. ........Not just List It so we can both sit back and Wait, and Hope, a buyer comes along--in time maybe depending your situation--who's willing to pay the quite likely over valued asking price your realtor talked you into listing it at, or at least hope they will make an offer that is not so low your agent is going to try and talk you out of accepting it--because you can get more, or the bank won't accept it so you shouldn't either--they have NO IDEA what the bank will or will not take. They're just trying to sell the house for more money so they can earn a bigger commission. There I go again off a tangent rave--which just might be my next post.
Okay back on track here. This is MY Message:
Attention:Joe Public Home Seller, go out and find a real estate investor (you can find them online ie. www-sell-a-house-arizona.com--that's me of course but you get it)
Do this FIRST--you can always do other things later
The beauty of finding the real estate investor first is you will gain ton's of knowledge--if nothing else--youcan use to go do those other things.
The other thing is you will not lose weeks, months, and more months of time waiting to see results. We investors move FAST. You'll know within a few short days--sometimes hours--if there is going be a deal that works for both parties--and our deals Always work for BOTH parties. It's all about Win/Win.
And if there isn't I'm sorry Mr Joe Public Homeowner but thank you for the opportunity and congradualtions for making the decision to contact a "Professional BUYER" first, so you can learn more and hopefully have greater success selling your house elswhere. It's been my pleasure to provide you with this information and I wish you all the best. Oh and by the way if nothing works out, please call me back and I'll be happy to take another look.
Now really how easy was that!!.....And the other happy ending is, "Yes I'll buy it at that price, just sign here." You now have a contract for sale and you can move on with your life.
And How Easy Was THAT!!!
The Fastest, Easiest way to Sell-A-House-Arizona.com is right here in front of you. Feel Free to take advantage of me.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Do the Stats Match What the People are Saying
Last week I had a young couple go out and take a survey for me. Honestly my #1 purpose was to hand out marketing materials, but I just found the results so astounding I've got to share them.
We did this 50% at the public library and 50% at a local shopping mall. Both of which are in a very average area of the city--not the ghetto and nor the ritzy areas. Those viting these places we're coming areas ranging from slightly below avarage to maybe just more than slightly above, with only a few with high end or poverty level status. Average was the target. Our target was homeowners so we eliminated--by eye only--those under 35.
The survey was only 4 questions. I did this both to help people be more willing to participate by saying this will only take 30 seconds, and also to be able to cover a lot of ground--again, objective-distribute marketing materials. We spent 4 hours and although I was hoping to do more like 400, we did 101. It wasn't as cost effective as I'd hoped. But that's not the point I'm here to write about. It's these very interesting stats we compiled. I would be very interested to know if this same survey done in other citys would bring similar results. But anyway on to the results.
Question 1- after gaining their willingness to participate in very short 4 question survey about housing we asked--Do you own your home or do you rent?
The answer to this question sent the us to our next three based on the answer. We got 30 owners and 71 renters. I bit more skewed than I anticipated--I was thinking more like 60% renters.
Question 2 for the homeowners: How have you owned your home? Results--out of 30:
12 owned for 5 yrs or less
2 for 5-9 yrs
10 9-15 yrs
7 15 yrs or more
This tell me there are not many people either around or leaving their homes on the weekend who bought from 03--07 & that people are buying now within the past 5 years.
Question 2 for the renters: How long have you been renting your current dwelling--don't know if they're in apts or houses. Results out of 71:
1yr or less--------------32
more than 1 to 3 yrs--18
more than 3 to 5 yrs--7
more than 5 yrs--------9
This tells me that as a land lord I should not expect my tenants to living in my place for more than 1 yr and to cherish those who stay 3 as they may end up being there a very long time.
Question 3 homeowners: Do you owe more than it's worth? this brought some interesting results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs-----3 of 12 are already upside down
owners of 5-9 yrs--the 2 bubble buyers------neither one upside down
owners of 9-15 yrs---98-03--------2 of 10 upside down
owners of 15 yrs or more----------1 0f 7 upside down
This tells me some of those who have purchased witin the past 5 years have made bad buys. maybe they purchased from 08-mid 2010 while prices were still declining. Aslo that some people did not fall for the refi game during the bubble--but I'll bet those 2 who bought during it who are not upside down have very little to no equity.. and finally that about 1/5th of those pre 03 owners did fall for the refi game.
Question 4 for the homeowners: If you could sell your house TODAY, would you? Final results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs---12 out of 30--of the 3 who are upside down only one said they would sell today if they could and overall only 2 out 12 said they would.
So basically everybody but one who bought in the past 5 years is happy, and one of them probably made such a good buy they could sell today and turn a profit.
Owners of 5-9 yrs---2 out of 30--of the 2 who bought during the bubble--and are not upside down--both would sell today IF they could.
This reafirms to me that they have little to no equity.
Owners of 9-15 yrs---10 out of 30--of the 2 who are upside down, both said they would sell today if they could, and overall 4 of ten would sell.
This tells me that about 20% of pre bubble owners fell for the refi and are now upside down and in trouble. So it's not just the bubble buyers. That fiasco has ruined a lot of lives of some probably very responsible people because every other peice of mail was telling how Now was the time to refi and get Cash...This is the most Disturbing of all the data here becouse you can get feeling for how devasting this was for a lot of good people who basicaly got suckered. I mean do you really think 20% of those owners would have refinanced for cash if their equity had only grown by a conservative 3% a year. No way. Also 1 out of the 7, 15 yr plus owners was also upside down and 4 said they sell If they could. I think those who owned longer and had more equity going in maybe didn't need to refi, we're too smart to fall for, or just were conservative enough not to.
Okay back to the Renters and some more astounding #'s
Question 3 for the renters: At any time during the past 10yrs--back to 02--did you own a home?
0-1 yr renters--out of 32--21 had owned a home within the ast 10 yrs
1+-3 yr renters--out of 18--15 had owned a home in the past 10 yrs
3+-5 yr renters--out of 7--3 had owned a home
5+ yrs renting --out of 9--2 had owned a home
These numbers present some very interesting observations. Starting on the back end renters of 3-5 yrs and 5+ yrs. Only 2 of 9 over 5 yrs and 3 of 7 3-5 yr renters had previously owned a home. 5 or 16 and 5 of 75 renters total . So this tell me that about 8% of the population are lifer renters with zero aspiration of ever owning a home.
Now look at the 0 to 3 yr renters--this tells me that 75% --64% if you add in the 3-5yr numbers--of all the renters today have owned a home within the past 10 yrs. Nearly three quarters of the 70% of average people, who are renting property today, no longer own the home they did within the past 10 yrs. Three quarters of 70% has got to be darn near 50% of the total population--Of Average Poeple Remember. That's a pretty eye opening statement.
Now the final question we asked the renters--and this really amazes me: If there was way you could Buy a house TODAY, would you.
There is no need to break this one down any further than saying of the 9 who have rented 5+ yrs Zero-Not a single one--said they would buy today if there was way they could. That just reinforces my lifer renter theory.
But this--Of the remaining 62 current renters, 39 of which had owned a home in the past 10 yrs, 6--yeah JUST 6--said they would buy a home today If there was a way they could. Just 6!!!! Have destroyed the concept of the American dream or What? Just 6!!!! I still cannot get over this number.
I was anticipating at least 50% would have said absolutely Yes with the low prices and interest rates they would be silly not to, but there is just no way we can due to our recent past struggles. JUST 6!!!!!
Amazing--AH-Mazing.
So What does this say about our recovery time from all this. To me it says hang on for a long bumpy ride because although it may not get any worse, I don't things getting better any time soon if people simply don't even want to get back out there and own a home again. This--Consumer Confidence--has got to be the most telling statistic to watch from here foreward. Because until people start thinking yes I want to buy, there's no way we're going to gobble up this inventory like everyone is saying.
I keep hearing everyone say it'll all be over in two years. Get 'em now cuz this window is closing in the next two years. I gotta say that I don't even see any glass in this window let alone seeing it closing. We need to fix it before we can start working on closing it--and it's still broken!
So there's a little peak into the status and mindset of Middle America for you. Taken directly from the mouth of Middle America. Not some number cruncher getting paid by those who have told him what results they want to see. Any statistic can be manipulated simply by where you pull your information from. This is what over 35 Average Americans are saying. Take it for what it's worth..
We did this 50% at the public library and 50% at a local shopping mall. Both of which are in a very average area of the city--not the ghetto and nor the ritzy areas. Those viting these places we're coming areas ranging from slightly below avarage to maybe just more than slightly above, with only a few with high end or poverty level status. Average was the target. Our target was homeowners so we eliminated--by eye only--those under 35.
The survey was only 4 questions. I did this both to help people be more willing to participate by saying this will only take 30 seconds, and also to be able to cover a lot of ground--again, objective-distribute marketing materials. We spent 4 hours and although I was hoping to do more like 400, we did 101. It wasn't as cost effective as I'd hoped. But that's not the point I'm here to write about. It's these very interesting stats we compiled. I would be very interested to know if this same survey done in other citys would bring similar results. But anyway on to the results.
Question 1- after gaining their willingness to participate in very short 4 question survey about housing we asked--Do you own your home or do you rent?
The answer to this question sent the us to our next three based on the answer. We got 30 owners and 71 renters. I bit more skewed than I anticipated--I was thinking more like 60% renters.
Question 2 for the homeowners: How have you owned your home? Results--out of 30:
12 owned for 5 yrs or less
2 for 5-9 yrs
10 9-15 yrs
7 15 yrs or more
This tell me there are not many people either around or leaving their homes on the weekend who bought from 03--07 & that people are buying now within the past 5 years.
Question 2 for the renters: How long have you been renting your current dwelling--don't know if they're in apts or houses. Results out of 71:
1yr or less--------------32
more than 1 to 3 yrs--18
more than 3 to 5 yrs--7
more than 5 yrs--------9
This tells me that as a land lord I should not expect my tenants to living in my place for more than 1 yr and to cherish those who stay 3 as they may end up being there a very long time.
Question 3 homeowners: Do you owe more than it's worth? this brought some interesting results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs-----3 of 12 are already upside down
owners of 5-9 yrs--the 2 bubble buyers------neither one upside down
owners of 9-15 yrs---98-03--------2 of 10 upside down
owners of 15 yrs or more----------1 0f 7 upside down
This tells me some of those who have purchased witin the past 5 years have made bad buys. maybe they purchased from 08-mid 2010 while prices were still declining. Aslo that some people did not fall for the refi game during the bubble--but I'll bet those 2 who bought during it who are not upside down have very little to no equity.. and finally that about 1/5th of those pre 03 owners did fall for the refi game.
Question 4 for the homeowners: If you could sell your house TODAY, would you? Final results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs---12 out of 30--of the 3 who are upside down only one said they would sell today if they could and overall only 2 out 12 said they would.
So basically everybody but one who bought in the past 5 years is happy, and one of them probably made such a good buy they could sell today and turn a profit.
Owners of 5-9 yrs---2 out of 30--of the 2 who bought during the bubble--and are not upside down--both would sell today IF they could.
This reafirms to me that they have little to no equity.
Owners of 9-15 yrs---10 out of 30--of the 2 who are upside down, both said they would sell today if they could, and overall 4 of ten would sell.
This tells me that about 20% of pre bubble owners fell for the refi and are now upside down and in trouble. So it's not just the bubble buyers. That fiasco has ruined a lot of lives of some probably very responsible people because every other peice of mail was telling how Now was the time to refi and get Cash...This is the most Disturbing of all the data here becouse you can get feeling for how devasting this was for a lot of good people who basicaly got suckered. I mean do you really think 20% of those owners would have refinanced for cash if their equity had only grown by a conservative 3% a year. No way. Also 1 out of the 7, 15 yr plus owners was also upside down and 4 said they sell If they could. I think those who owned longer and had more equity going in maybe didn't need to refi, we're too smart to fall for, or just were conservative enough not to.
Okay back to the Renters and some more astounding #'s
Question 3 for the renters: At any time during the past 10yrs--back to 02--did you own a home?
0-1 yr renters--out of 32--21 had owned a home within the ast 10 yrs
1+-3 yr renters--out of 18--15 had owned a home in the past 10 yrs
3+-5 yr renters--out of 7--3 had owned a home
5+ yrs renting --out of 9--2 had owned a home
These numbers present some very interesting observations. Starting on the back end renters of 3-5 yrs and 5+ yrs. Only 2 of 9 over 5 yrs and 3 of 7 3-5 yr renters had previously owned a home. 5 or 16 and 5 of 75 renters total . So this tell me that about 8% of the population are lifer renters with zero aspiration of ever owning a home.
Now look at the 0 to 3 yr renters--this tells me that 75% --64% if you add in the 3-5yr numbers--of all the renters today have owned a home within the past 10 yrs. Nearly three quarters of the 70% of average people, who are renting property today, no longer own the home they did within the past 10 yrs. Three quarters of 70% has got to be darn near 50% of the total population--Of Average Poeple Remember. That's a pretty eye opening statement.
Now the final question we asked the renters--and this really amazes me: If there was way you could Buy a house TODAY, would you.
There is no need to break this one down any further than saying of the 9 who have rented 5+ yrs Zero-Not a single one--said they would buy today if there was way they could. That just reinforces my lifer renter theory.
But this--Of the remaining 62 current renters, 39 of which had owned a home in the past 10 yrs, 6--yeah JUST 6--said they would buy a home today If there was a way they could. Just 6!!!! Have destroyed the concept of the American dream or What? Just 6!!!! I still cannot get over this number.
I was anticipating at least 50% would have said absolutely Yes with the low prices and interest rates they would be silly not to, but there is just no way we can due to our recent past struggles. JUST 6!!!!!
Amazing--AH-Mazing.
So What does this say about our recovery time from all this. To me it says hang on for a long bumpy ride because although it may not get any worse, I don't things getting better any time soon if people simply don't even want to get back out there and own a home again. This--Consumer Confidence--has got to be the most telling statistic to watch from here foreward. Because until people start thinking yes I want to buy, there's no way we're going to gobble up this inventory like everyone is saying.
I keep hearing everyone say it'll all be over in two years. Get 'em now cuz this window is closing in the next two years. I gotta say that I don't even see any glass in this window let alone seeing it closing. We need to fix it before we can start working on closing it--and it's still broken!
So there's a little peak into the status and mindset of Middle America for you. Taken directly from the mouth of Middle America. Not some number cruncher getting paid by those who have told him what results they want to see. Any statistic can be manipulated simply by where you pull your information from. This is what over 35 Average Americans are saying. Take it for what it's worth..
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate--Revisited
Some time ago I wrote a post asking this very question. At the time my general concensus was yes this is a good time. Has my stance changed since then? Absolutely not.
In fact I feel even stronger than before that now is not only a good time to buy property, it may very well be The Best time in history to buy property. Why do I think this way? Well there are many contributing factors but the bottom line is this.
We still have a ton of inventory keeping prices low. Even lower than a year ago. This inventory, although some may say is shrinking--this however is unique to your market and something you should follow closely--not only is still there but I don't see it going away anytime soon. We still have millions in or facing foreclosure, millions upside down, and a shadow inventory--bank owned properties not for sale--that will years to eliminate. All these factors will help keep the absorbtion rate--time it would take to sell everything currently listed--higher than what a healthy level should be, which will in turn keep inventory high and prices low for some time to come.
But low prices are not enough. A low interest rate plays a key role in my belief why now is The
Greatest time to be buying. "Get 'Em While They're Low People." We have no idea how long this will last. The government simply cannot sit still and keep their sticky fingers out the interest rate. They feel it is their obligation to manipulate this one way or another, and with president Obama's term coming to an end there will be more and more uncertainty as to where they will be anytime soon. Especially if he is not re-elected. The next person in there will absolutely have to do something--If for no other reason than he/she just, he has to do something. If they stay low obviously this window will stay open, but if they start to climb every one of you will be saying, "Why didn't I buy when the interest rates were low?"
There's a few other related items I could toss in, but if just those two aren't enough, to get you off your duff, then nothing else I can say will get you motivated to get buying now. I'll tell you what, I really don't care what you think about all this. You can disagree 100%, it's your god given right. But I am buying EVERYTHING I can get my hands on, Right Now.
In fact I feel even stronger than before that now is not only a good time to buy property, it may very well be The Best time in history to buy property. Why do I think this way? Well there are many contributing factors but the bottom line is this.
We still have a ton of inventory keeping prices low. Even lower than a year ago. This inventory, although some may say is shrinking--this however is unique to your market and something you should follow closely--not only is still there but I don't see it going away anytime soon. We still have millions in or facing foreclosure, millions upside down, and a shadow inventory--bank owned properties not for sale--that will years to eliminate. All these factors will help keep the absorbtion rate--time it would take to sell everything currently listed--higher than what a healthy level should be, which will in turn keep inventory high and prices low for some time to come.
But low prices are not enough. A low interest rate plays a key role in my belief why now is The
Greatest time to be buying. "Get 'Em While They're Low People." We have no idea how long this will last. The government simply cannot sit still and keep their sticky fingers out the interest rate. They feel it is their obligation to manipulate this one way or another, and with president Obama's term coming to an end there will be more and more uncertainty as to where they will be anytime soon. Especially if he is not re-elected. The next person in there will absolutely have to do something--If for no other reason than he/she just, he has to do something. If they stay low obviously this window will stay open, but if they start to climb every one of you will be saying, "Why didn't I buy when the interest rates were low?"
There's a few other related items I could toss in, but if just those two aren't enough, to get you off your duff, then nothing else I can say will get you motivated to get buying now. I'll tell you what, I really don't care what you think about all this. You can disagree 100%, it's your god given right. But I am buying EVERYTHING I can get my hands on, Right Now.
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